Domestic and foreign cotton prices diverge from Zheng cotton "anti-fall"

April 1-3, Xinjiang ushered in the cotton sowing period, the southern and northern Xinjiang began cotton spring sowing work. This week coincided with the Qingming Holiday, with only 3 trading days left, but Zheng cotton showed a strong operation trend driven by the rising atmosphere of commodities. Since the Qingming Festival, ICE cotton futures have accelerated their fall, returning to the 85-90 cents/pound range. However, it is somewhat surprising that Zheng cotton opened this week, the CF2405 contract did not follow ICE futures and cotton spot prices fell sharply, but maintained a narrow range of 16000-16300 yuan/ton consolidation, showing a strong resistance, which led to the expansion of cotton prices inside and outside again.

Zheng cotton did not follow the United States cotton down, but out of the rising pattern, indicating that domestic Zheng cotton in the critical period of planting and growth in a strong, rising pressure is significantly less than the downward pressure.

On March 31, the National Bureau of Statistics released the PMI data for March, of which the official manufacturing PMI 50.8%, up 1.7 percentage points from the previous month, above the critical value, which is the first time since October 2023 in the line above growth and contraction, the manufacturing industry has steadily recovered, improving market confidence. Subsequently, when domestic futures opened on April 1, commodities generally ushered in a rebound, and the market was in a strong bullish atmosphere.

In April, with the warm weather, Xinjiang gradually ushered in the peak season of spring sowing. According to the nationwide cotton planting intention survey conducted by the national cotton market monitoring system in mid-to-late November 2023, the intended planting area of China's cotton in 2024 is 40,407 mu, a year-on-year decrease of 995,000 mu, a decrease of 2.4%. At present, Xinjiang cotton has just begun to sow, and then the weather will become a key factor affecting the rise and fall of cotton.

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