From the perspective of relevant institutions in the near future, the cotton market is generally not optimistic.

Capital futures believes that cotton prices are difficult to change weak, Hongyuan futures pointed out that cotton prices will continue to bottom.

On the international front, the US non-farm employment data is lower than expected, the market is more worried about the US economy, and the risk aversion is rising, putting pressure on cotton prices. Us cotton and Brazilian cotton are expected to increase production in the New Year, and global cotton production may increase significantly in 2024/25, and ending stocks are expected to accumulate slightly. Although the recent week of the United States cotton excellent rate of decline is not large and the overall seedling situation is good, but the United States cotton export data show that the United States cotton swab about a large number of cancellation, demand is still weak, the new annual global supply and demand pattern is expected to be loose, the international cotton price still has downward pressure in the medium term.

Domestically, the supply side is relatively abundant. The amount of slip tax quota issued is only 200,000 tons, and the impact is limited. Although the domestic commercial inventory continues to be stored, it is still higher than the same period last year, cotton imports have increased significantly, and the new cotton harvest is expected to be strong. The demand side is weak, the downstream opening probability has declined since July, the growth of order volume is limited, the downstream just needs to stock mainly, the inventory level of finished products is high, and the expectation of the peak season is not prosperous has gradually increased. In June, China's yarn and grey fabric inventory continued to rise, and the inventory of textile enterprises will drag down the process of raw materials to the warehouse. In July, China's clothing and clothing accessories exports fell 4.31% year-on-year, export decline expanded, domestic sales are also relatively weak, a small number of autumn and winter orders issued. Zheng cotton short-term difficult to find upward drive, textile enterprises boot load is still falling in the quarter, the market for "gold nine silver ten" traditional demand season is expected to be weak, market confidence to be boosted.

The current pattern of strong domestic supply and weak demand has not changed, the global cotton market supply and demand is loose, the market off-season is deep, the intermediate inventory is high, and the cotton price lacks a strong boost factor in the short term, which will still be under pressure. The follow-up needs to pay close attention to the landing of domestic peak season orders and the weather changes in the main cotton producing areas of the United States.

Declaration: The content of this article is organized from the Internet, and the copyright belongs to the original author; If there is infringement, please inform in time and contact to delete.